Washington hosts UCLA in the Huskies’ first PAC-12 conference game of the season.
On paper, the key matchup is UCLA’s poor defense versus Washington’s superior offensive firepower, a more one-sided mismatch than it has been historically.
ery Poor Defense
UCLA’s overall defense is not good, surrendering 0.899 points per possession (ppp) which ranks in the 22nd percentile nationally.*
UCLA is not effective playing man-to-man defense (0.852 ppp/33rd percentile) but they are even worse at zone defense (1.034 ppp/21st percentile).*
UCLA is not effective at defending most offensive plays, whether it is catch-and-shoot (1.234 ppp/2nd percentile) , spot-ups (1.0 ppp/8th percentile), runners (0.704 ppp/47th percentile), isolation(0.935 ppp/12th percentile), hand-offs (0.882/31st percentile) or screen (0.882/38th percentile) actions.*
The Huskies will have a decided advantage in most offensive play types and should score a lot of points, particularly with Jaden McDaniels, Isaiah Stewart and Nahziah Carter having huge mismatches in most offensive situations.
astbreak? Piece of Cake
The Bruins struggle at preventing fastbreak scoring, allowing 1.074 points per possession (ppp) ranking in the 20th percentile nationally.*
Expect the Huskies fastbreak attack to be very effective against the Bruins with Quade Green, Nahziah Carter, Jaden McDaniels and Isaiah Stewart all feasting on UCLA’s poor transition defense.
ig Exception in the Middle
UCLA’s 6’10” Jalen Hill is an excellent post defender allowing only 0.25 points per possession on post-up plays, ranking him in the 99th percentile in defending plays of this type.*
Hill is the primary reason UCLA ranks in the 90th percentile for defending post-ups as a team, allowing only 0.697 ppp.*
If the Huskies run their offense through Isaiah Stewart, it could be a Battle Royale between Stewart and Hill, but give the edge to Stewart by a slim margin if he can stay out of foul trouble.
If the Dawgs can get out in transition to score and complement pounding the ball inside to Stewart in the post, this should be a Huskies victory with a possible late blowout.
Our Prediction: HUSKIES WIN!
*All Stats courtesy of Synergy, NCAA